In a setback for all regions of New York State that are eligible for a casino (or two), the casino-siting board has made it clear it’s taking a serious look at the “up to four” clause in the licensing process. So maybe they could hand out three licenses. 
Or fewer. At this point there are three eligible regions and 16 competing proposals, with a decision coming in October. The thinly populated Southern Tier is highly unlikely to get more than one. (Three proposals have been submitted.)
Which means that the solomonic baby-slicing will happen in the Catskills area, where Ulster County and Sullivan County are at daggers drawn with Orange County (more affluent, closer to New York City). With six of nine of the Catskills-area proposals being in Orange County, the odds are favoring it heavily at this point. It’s cruelly ironic because, for years, Sullivan and Ulster counties were the poster children for casino expansion, and now they may get cut out of the action entirely.
But “while casinos in Orange County may make the most money, that’s not the sole intent of the measure, [Gaming Facility Location Board Chairman Kevin] Law said, “… he objective is to balance between the needs of each region and the casinos that can be most profitable.” He also pointed to the threat posed to Orange County by potential New Jersey casinos in the Meadowlands or Jersey City.
“It’s really going to make our jobs very challenging. We want to do something good for communities that are starving for this type of investment. We’d love to do something to promote tourism upstate. But you have to also take into consideration what’s happening around us in the gaming industry,” he told the Democrat & Chronicle.
* A different sort of competition could be emerging from Pennsylvania. A Morgan Stanley Research document predicts the Keystone State will legalize 
Internet poker within two years. It is projecting $58 million in revenue in Year One, escalating to $389.5 million by the fourth year. New York won’t hesitate long to jump in either, predicts the report, nor will Illinois and California. The latter is expected to enact poker legalization next year and be online by 2016, grossing $260 million right off the bat.
The Morgan Stanley report paints a picture of relatively speedy acceptance and enactment of online poker. By 2017 … seven states and $1.3 billion … by 2020, $5.2 billion from 20 states, led by Ohio and West Virginia. Believe it or not, these numbers actually represent a downward revision.
Like others, Morgan Stanley is pinning its hopes on the licensure in New Jersey of PokerStars, which it believes will open the floodgates of Internet play. (It has already driven a huge increase in Italian play.) A Pennsylvania i-gaming bill is currently tied up in committee, although the prospect of $113 million in taxable revenue could break the post-election logjam.
* The best of things can go south and so it is with Macao casino revenues. 
Deutsche Bank has worsened its estimate of a fourth-quarter decline to 15%. As Macau Business Daily puts it, “From flat revenue growth to low single-digit drop to high-single digit decrease and now into a double-digit decline. All this in less than two months.”
Market consensus, Deutsche Bank argues, is too optimistic, failing to take into account an oncoming smoking ban and the state visit of President Xi Jinping, who has made Macao the poster child for state corruption. It also foresees minor growth by the mass-market segment and a major decline (29%) in VIP play. With VIPs accounting for 54% of casino revenues that’s pretty sobering. Looking even into the future, DB has cause for optimism, predicting single-digit gains spurred by the opening of new casinos on the Cotai Strip. And even at their attenuated levels, 2014 gambling revenues still comfortably exceed those of 2012.
