Nazarian’s luck, Caesars’ hoard

Sam Nazarian won’t be able to have an operational role in the casino at SLS Las Vegas but he’ll be able to participate in its revenue stream now that he is finally the holder of a Nevada Nazariangaming license — albeit a heavily conditional one. Howard Stutz‘s Twitter feed contains such a vivid tweet-by-tweet account that any further synopsis feels almost superfluous. The hearing had a Kabuki-theatre quality to it: testimonials to Nazarian, statements of contrition from the man himself, pro forma scolding from the Nevada Gaming Commission and then a unanimous vote in his favor. However, the Commission imposed a couple of additional terms on Nazarian’s highly provisional license, including making the mandatory drug testing more … intimate. A bit of unplanned drama was added when Nazarian hanger-on Derrick “Smokey” Armstrong showed up, attempting to testify, only to be arrested on outstanding warrants. (Why couldn’t he have said his peace, then been cuffed?)

Among yesterday’s revelations was that Nazarian had fathered a child out of wedlock, which might explain help explain why he’s such a juicy target of extortion. Speaking of which, the NGC seemed more interested in his cocaine use than his susceptibility to shakedowns. Back when he was still on the NGC, Art Marshall told me the Nevada Gaming Control Board metes out justice and the Commission dispenses mercy. If that’s so, Sam Nazarian got a truckload of mercy yesterday and ought to thank his lucky stars.

* It’s a race against time for Caesars Entertainment creditors who want the company put into receivership (for alleged fraudulent asset transfers) before it can reach the relatively safe haven of Chapter 11. UMB Bank is pressing for speedy adjudication, while Caesars contends that the process is being driven by Elliott Management Corp. “to improve its negotiating position and to profit on credit default swaps, a kind of insurance, tied to the casino company’s debt.”

It’s a good thing Caesars is hoarding $1.5 billion in cash, because bankruptcy isn’t going to come cheap. Fitch Ratings analyst Michael Paladino pegs the cost at $800 million (for context, the Enron bankruptcy cost $750 million to administer). “We estimate full recovery for CEOC’s credit facility lenders, 87% recovery for the first-lien noteholders and less than 10% recovery for the remainder of the capital structure,” he writes. “The 87% recovery for the first-lien notes is an upward revision from 80% Fitch estimated,” thanks to the recently skipped interest payment.

* Despite much fretting in Las Vegas that our days as a gambling capital are so over, Paladino’s forecast for us is “sunny,” while he is much more guarded about regional markets. He warns of “fragile” cash flow, citing several factors, including “weak same-store trends.” Say, whatever did become of that meme that Vegas was perennially invulnerable to satellite markets because the Sin City experience couldn’t be replicated? We did become such a bunch of Debbie Downers?

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