Reality check at Sands; Bonanza in Baltimore

Sheldon Adelson risks making himself look in denial with his continuing insistence that the economic troubles in Macao are Sheldon Acyclical. This is B.S.: There has never been a ‘cycle’ in Macao of such depth or duration. Adelson’s Pollyanna attitude contrasts sharply with that of Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli, who writes, “We are now projecting 3Q15 [gross gaming revenue] to fall 35.1% (previously -33.0%) and 2015 GGR to decline 34.1% (previously -33.0%). Our 2016 forecast is -5.8% (previously -5.5%). Our estimate for September is -35.2%” (The outlook of Santarelli’s DB colleague, Karen Tang, is even more dire.) Also, proving that this leopard can change his spots, Adelson is now bragging on Sands China‘s market share, a metric he used to scorn.

“Sands has managed to boost its profit margins and operating earnings on a quarter-over-quarter basis,” notes the Motley Fool, which credits Sands with spurning a “vanilla” casino model in favor of stressing convention and exhibition business — and a mind-blowing 840 retail venues. Sands has also been able to maintain its ADR price points while its competitors are deeply discounting hotel rooms. Adelson remains optimistic on the Japan market, issuing a statement so convoluted as to be wholly inscrutable: “We’re keeping our powder dry so that we could go after that aggressively and we could build what it takes to win the day.” Uh … OK, whatever you say, Shel.

In the meantime, Las Vegas Sands is striving to give Strip baccarat play a shot in the arm by hosting the Annual Grand Master Master Baccarat Championship, starting Oct. 2 at Palazzo. (Satellite Venetian Dragontourneys will be held in Singapore and Macao.) Prize money will be staggered across the Golden Dragon tournament, and subsequent Ruby Dragon round and Royal Dragon invitational. All of this climaxes in the expense-paid “global final,” held at Marina Bay Sands next March. In an effort to turn Americans into baccarat players, Sands is offering free daily entries to its Grazie club members. The company already strives to make converts with its $25 buy-ins on the Strip and $5 electronic blackjack. S&G tips its hat to Adelson’s enterprising spirit.

* Despite not living up to over-optimistic revenue projections — not the fault of Caesars Entertainment but of the state — Harrahs BaltimoreHorseshoe Casino Baltimore has been deemed “one of Baltimore‘s largest economic engines” in a Sage Policy Group study. It ranks among Baltimore’s top 15 employers and augmented commerce within the city by $384 million. $6 million in slot-machine profits are being rechanneled into police services, summer schools and job centers. “If one simply assesses the first year impact of the casino in the absence of any analytical baggage,” writes Sage CEO Anirban Basu, “it becomes abundantly clear that Baltimore has managed to secure another important economic anchor.”

* Social gamers in the casino industry, take note: Gaming applications and corporate information on the same device are a dangerous mix.

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