Malaise in Macao; Celebration at G2E

Wall Street analysts having revised their expectations downward well beforehand, Macao‘s 33% decline in gaming revenues hardly came as a surprise. If anything, they expected worse. Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli even noticed some “pre-Golden Week malaise” toward the end of September. “While the September result is the smallest level of decline since January … one would be hard pressed to call it encouraging,” he wrote. Play was 8% lighter in September than in August, although per-day win was better than average for a September.

The Macanese market also got a kick in the pants from the Chinese government, with Social Affairs & Culture Secretary Tam Chon-Weng stating that visa allotments would not be loosened to allow Macao to maintain its 32 million tourists per year average. As Santarelli put it, “we again struggle with the negative tone ahead of meaningful new supply.” He’s predicting a 27% decline in October. He also is forecasting double-digit declines into the new year, with Macau Studio City only providing “limited aggregate incremental demand.” Mind you, Macao is still far and away the world’s top gambling market but this is a helluva time to be investing in it.

The Motley Fool‘s Travis Hoium argues that there’s a hidden opportunity or two within the present crisis. For one, casinos have an incentive to focus on higher-margin mass-market players instead of ‘whales’ “because of all of the junket costs, perks, and rebates VIP players demand.” Secondly, it would forcibly bring about economic diversification. Hoium points out that the Venetian in Las Vegas made $86.5 million off its casino and $134 million from its hotel rooms during a period in which Venetian Macao raked in $634 million from gambling against a comparatively measly $51 million in room sales. Needless to say, greater parity between those numbers would also make nervous Macanese officials happier, as the city teeters on its gaming-centric economy.

* It’s Global Gaming Expo week, which means it’s time for awards by the bushel. Penn & Teller got the nod as casino entertainers of the year and you Little River Band fans will be happy to know they were named “musical artist [sic] of the year. The Casino Entertainment Legend award went to Jerry Lewis and was presented — only too aptly — by Charo. Another Legend award was given to Colosseum Executive Director H.C. Rowe, in recognition of a lifetime of achievement. The Casino Entertainment Executive of the Year was Potowatomi Bingo & Casino‘s Director of Entertainment Robert Rech.

Private-sector casinos got blanked in the venue categories. Showroom of the Year went to Turning Stone Resort Casino and, in the outdoor-venue category, New Mexico‘s Arizona‘s Casino del Sol scored for its AVA Amphitheater.

Skill-based games are probably a long ways away from deployment (none has been licensed yet) but G2E attendees got a chance to get hands-on with the gambling wave of the future.