Back to normal

For starters, let’s just write off 2006-7 as an aberration. While dancing in the streets is premature, Nevada‘s casino revenues from November ($873 million) at least give us an excuse to breathe a sigh of relief — especially when other jurisdictions, including Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and Atlantic City, remain locked in the grip of the Great Recession.

Compared to November 2008’s 15% plunge, Nevada gambling joints notched a 4% gain in 11/09. This is the first statewide and Strip uptick in 23 months, despite a slightly unfavorable calendar (fewer weekend days). It’s a demi-recovery, as it was driven by the Strip (+8%) and an unexpected resurgence in the locals market, with Boulder Strip and North Las Vegas up 19% and 21%, respectively.

Nearly every other jurisdiction is in the minus column. Downtown‘s trajectory is the flattest: down 2% in November ’08 and -1% a year later. The mercurial Lake Tahoe market (in which Harrah’s Entertainment is overexposed) was the Debbie Downer of the month, going from 2008’s -5% to a -27% dive year/year (and bringing in a measly $16 million; heck, Elko did better than that).

Considering that Nevada has gone from posting $1 billion-plus monthly revenues on a routine basis to a 2009 that bottomed out at $800 million last October (with December numbers still pending), the Era of Diminished Expectations appears here to stay. Despite ratcheting up the hold still further, Strip slot revenues continued to slip (-4%). Luckily, table play was “robust,” as J.P. Morgan analysts put it, with table drop up 20% and 84% in baccarat. Players lost big, as the house’s baccarat take was 136% up and its table win leapt 24% despite only a miniscule increase in hold.

One swallow doesn’t make a Spring and a terrific November for the Las Vegas and Boulder strips still leaves much of the state lagging far behind. Still, if those two markets have finally bottomed out and are on their way back up, we can indulge in optimism awhile.