LV Monorail lives; MGM shatters expectations

Whether or not you consider the Las Vegas Monorail a while elephant, its trunk is going to grow a bit longer. Clark County is diligently pursuing the permits that would enable it to extend the Monorail to Mandalay Bay, where it would be within walking distance of the planned NFL stadium. (And even if the [your city here] Raiders don’t move to Las Vegas, the county is committed to building at least a $500 million stadium, mainly for the benefit of UNLV.) Among the changes to the existing Monorail would be a stop near Sands Expo Center, meaning that Sheldon Adelson has belatedly seen the benefit to his convention business … And wants to be tied as closely to his stadium as infrastructure will permit.

The plan currently on the drawing boards calls for the extension to leave MGM Grand, go south on Koval Lane, past several small hangars on the northwest corner of McCarran International Airport, swing west onto Reno Avenue, passing the south side of the Tropicana Las Vegas, wrap south and west around MGM’s south-Strip festival grounds, then pull right into the heart of Mandalay Bay. If all goes according to plan, the extension would take 18 months to build, meaning it would be more than ready for the stadium, not due until 2020. Monorail extensions have been mooted before. We’ll see soon enough if this one is the real deal.

* Why go to a casino when you can play at a slot route? That seems to be the message coming out of Illinois, where players wagered only 1% less but turned out in 7% fewer numbers. Even Rivers Casino ($34 million) took a 10% dive. Harrah’s Joliet ($15 million, fractionally up) “won” the month, although Casino Queen ($9 million, flat) and Jumer’s Casino Rock Island ($6 million, -1%) stood their ground. Caesars Entertainment was not so fortunate at Harrah’s Metropolis, where a $6.5 million gross meant a 15% decline. Boyd Gaming was down 8% at Par-A-Dice ($7 million), while MGM Resorts International grossed $13 million for a 13% swoon at Grand Victoria.

The Penn National Gaming-managed portfolio had a rough month. Argosy Belle (4%) was 6.5% off, Empress Joliet ($9.5 million) dropped 7%, while there was an 11% falloff at Hollywood Aurora ($9 million). In a way, it doesn’t matter if the Illinois Lege doesn’t expand gambling again (Shhhhh! Let’s not remind them); slot-route legalization is chipping away at the casino biz and the only way to win is to do what Penn did and buy up some routes for yourself.

* Above-guidance results from the Las Vegas Strip, Detroit, Mississippi and yes, even Macao led to what JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff called a “better than expected” 3Q16, led in part by favorable table-game hold and by cash flow that overshot expectations by $101 million. “All in all, we think MGM is the best risk-reward in gaming,” wrote Greff, emphasizing MGM’s — get this — strong domestic performance and strong convention business on the Strip. In other words, there’s an upside to being a relatively small fish in the big but shark-infested Macanese pond, where mass-market revenues were described as “much higher.” Strip room revenue came in 11% higher (above guidance) and outperformed rival companies.

Gaming-revenue increases were largely driven by owning 100% of Borgata, a $900 million investment that is already paying off handsomely. On other battle fronts, MGM withstood a 26% decrease in VIP play in Macao, saw revenue in Detroit jump 23% (!), and held firm in Biloxi and Tunica — not bad given the challenges to Tunica and the new competition in Biloxi. Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli threw caution to the winds and hailed the results as a “blow out” of 3Q forecasts. Strip net revenue alone was just short of $1.5 billion and MGM Grand Paradise (pictured) far surpassed expectations in a flat period. There’s not much to add save that management’s much-ballyhooed Profit Growth Plan is already delivering results.