Election 2010: Around the horn

Let’s get to it, with some help from Wells Fargo gaming analyst Carlo Santarelli
Cordish Gaming
won big in Maryland, where voters upheld an initiative to ratify the zoning of its Arundel Mills Mall casino project. Penn National Gaming, in a Machiavellian scheme to wrest away the license and move it to Laurel Park, bankrolled an anti-Cordish ballot drive that fell well short: 44%/56%. This is a win not just for Cordish but — with 4,750 slots at stake* — for WMS, International Game Technology and Bally Technologies alike. Santarelli, in an investor note, rates the outcome a serious setback for Penn, which could lose as much as 15% of Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races‘ net revenue, shut down Laurel Park and try to sell it. Cordish’s luck didn’t extend to its former lobbyist, Robert Ehrlich, who got badly trounced by a Penn backer, Gov. Martin O’Malley.

* — That number of machines would, in Atlantic City, make Cordish’s venue the second-largest casino in town.

At press time, Penn was also losing in Maine, where voters were on pace to very narrowly approve a full Class III casino in Oxford County. The public up there blows hot and cold on casinos, having voted them down three times out of four in the last seven years. Penn is understandably jealous of Black Bear Entertainment‘s $160 million Oxford project, as it would have the full range of ‘Vegas’ games while Penn’s Bangor racino is restricted to slots.

It was a lopsided victory for Isle of Capri Casinos when Cape Girardeau voters approved casino gambling in a landslide. While this gets Isle one large step closer to Missouri‘s coveted 13th license, the state’s gaming commission still has to sift among four proposals and some of the budget projections (like Paragon Gaming‘s) make Isle’s $125 million commitment look like pocket change. When in doubt, politicians tend to like the “shovel-ready” project that puts the most dollars into the economy the soonest.

An unusual law in Iowa requires communities to ratify their casinos’ continued operation every eight years. Although some local, economically suicidal idiots tried to mount a campaign to run Council Bluffs’ gaming venues out of town, sanity overwhelmingly prevailed. Eighty percent of the Council Bluffs electorate said “Eight more years!” to Harrah’s Entertainment‘s dog track, as well as to Ameristar Casinos‘ and Isle’s riverboats. That’s a status quo we can believe in.

Richmond, California voters blew a raspberry to the idea of a tribal casino on Point Molate (left). Although the ballot question was only advisory in nature, given the new makeup of Richmond’s city government, this appears to stick a fork in the Guideville Band of Pomo Indians‘ long-sought casino-resort.

Canadian garbage-hauling firm Clairvest and Las Vegas-based Navegante Group got taken out with the trash in Oregon, where voters ashcanned what would have been the state’s first private-sector casino, a $250 million facility at Multnomah Kennel Club. Opponents argued that the project, if successful, would disembowel Oregon’s tribal-casino industry. It’s been a rough year for Clairvest and Navegante, which were turfed out of their Aqueduct Race Track casino deal after the selection process proved to be tainted.

In other races, Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, a strong racino proponent, suffered a narrow loss to former Congressman Jon Kasich, whose position on the issue is exquisitely noncommittal. (Short-term setback for Penn and Harrah’s, that one.) Iowa‘s casino-expansionist governor, Chet Culver, also got bounced from office by once and future Gov. Terry Branstad, who is currently opposed to further casino growth in the Hawkeye State, much to the relief of all existing operators. Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, friendlier to casinos (slightly) than his GOP rival, was reelected. But don’t expect a renewed casino push in the near term; even diehard supporters of Bay State gambling have soured on the endless back-and-forth … to say nothing of Patrick’s intransigence, which scuttled a seemingly done deal in the last Legislature.

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