Massachusetts: Another one bites the dust; Sands Cotai: Hit or miss?

That Aquinnah Wampanoag Tribe effort to obtain the coveted southeastern Massachusetts casino license is quickly being exposed as a thing of smoke and mirrors. Sure, the tribe can get a Class II casino on Martha’s Vineyardit’s a done deal — but the real money’s in Class III. (The Class II VLT parlor is being defensively described as a “boutique casino.”) Where the money isn’t is in the Aquinnah band’s bank account. They’ve been placing their hopes on hyper-obscure KMD Consulting Services, which just came up empty in Kenosha. KMD prexy Kevin Dwyer termed his parting with the Menominee Tribe “amicable” and said KMD was focusing on other casino projects (read: Massachusetts). However, a tribal source told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that KMD was hundreds of thousands of dollars behind on its obligations to the tribe and had put the latter’s option on Dairyland Greyhound Park at risk. Tribal Chairman Craig Corn verified that KMD was coming up short. The Menominee were only stalking horses, anyway, essentially a front for a $1 billion, private-sector casino in a tribal-only state.

Out east, the Cape Cod Times enterprisingly dug into KMD’s murky past and found the company may be guilty of resumé-padding. While KMD claims to have played an unspecified role with both Bellagio and CityCenter, the only firm tie the Times verified was a one-step-removed relationship with MGM Grand Detroit (left). That the Aquinnah had to dredge all the way down to KMD tells you just how meager their chances are. As gaming scholar extraordinaire Bill Eadington says, no first- or second-echelon casino company is going to wade through five, maybe 10 years of litigation for a long-shot Bay State casino — and another seven years of construction beyond that. The tribe’s proposal of a $167 million-$300 million facility also falls contemptuously short of the Massachusetts mandate for $500 million in investment. It’s part and parcel of an IGRA-based end-around to get past pesky state laws and into the end zone, but time is not on the tribe’s side.

“We bring the people who bring the millions,” Dwyer boasted, and he’d better do it because it looks as though KMD barely has two nickels to rub together. True, he does have a commitment from Perini Construction Corp., but the latter has literal and metaphorical damage control to due, thanks to the botch it made of The Harmon. It could use a few new-project announcements to shore up its reputation in the casino biz. I’m not sure this shambolic tribal effort will do the trick.

With Sheldon Adelson and Steve Wynn having taken flight, attention turns to the proposed racino at Suffolk Downs. Once you get past the $1 billion sticker shock, it’s actually dismaying to see that Caesars Entertainment is taking a minority position in the project (a split apparently modeled on its arrangements with Rock Gaming in Ohio and Maryland). Why dismaying? Because if you’re waiting for Richard Fields to come up with a billion dollars from a cash-challenged track, you might want to pass the time by making an appointment to see Mr. Godot. Caesars is showing that it could raise the money, if it needs to, while Fields’ inability to swing even a bargain-price purchase of Trump Marina means the jury’s still out on his rainmaking abilities.

However, the Caesars/Fields combo looks rock-solid compared to the one obstacle remaining in their path: rival developer David Nunes (left). Several years ago, he was something of a local hero to Milford. Now he’s on the verge of getting laughed out of town. Nunes has talked big ($700 million, 5,000 slots, etc.) but hasn’t flashed any cash, giving rise to skepticism amongst the selectmen. If the proposed design of Crossroads Casino looks like a rejected rendering that was fished out of a Station Casinos wastebasket, small wonder: mooted operator Warner Gaming is largely comprised of executive refugees from Station. (“Sunset Milford”? “Milford Station”?) Don’t expect Warner to rescue Nunes. It’s strictly a manager (primarily of Las Vegas‘ hard-luck Hard Rock Hotel & Casino, whose owner — Credit Suisse — was affiliated with the project three years ago). It’s not a financier. As for its design sensibility, I guess you can take the executive out of Station but you can’t Station out of the exec. In any event, “Caesars Suffolk” or “Horseshoe Boston” or whatever it’ll be called is looking like the best of a bad lot.

Sands Cotai a flop? “Build it and they will come”? Maybe not in Macao, apparently, where the soft opening of Sands Cotai only produced a 2% year/year growth in visitation. However, according to Union Gaming, casinos owned by Sands China led Macao in market share, with 35% of customers preferring Sheldon Adelson‘s hospitality. In the meantime, Steve Wynn is doing a fan dance, teasing his audience with the broad outlines of the project. He’s keeping its look to himself, although the backhoes are supposed to kick into gear next month. El Steve does explain the $50 million premium he paid on the Wynn Cotai site, which expedited its approval. Seems the Peking government had already promised the land to developer Tien Chao. Wynn first proposed that the two companies split ownership but eventually bought Tien Chao out entirely. And it’s yes-no-maybe regarding the casino Melco Crown Entertainment wants in order to make completion of Macau Studio City (left) viable. Majority owner Lawrence Ho made his desire known to the media a year ago but neglected to tell the government until year’s end. Whoops. Now the Melco party line is that casino approval “is just a formality and will happen very soon.” Of course, ever time a casino company says that, City Hall applies the brakes, just to show who’s boss.

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